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Tropical Disturbance Near Africa Has High Chance of Development

The development odds for a tropical disturbance that has entered the Atlantic Ocean near Africa were increased Friday.

The disturbance, known as a tropical wave, is forecast to move westward at 15-20 mph across the eastern and central Atlantic during the next several days.

The National Hurricane Center raised the chances of development for the disturbance to 30% within two days and 70% within a week.

According to the FOX Forecast Center, there is potential for the wave to become a tropical depression or tropical storm by the middle part of next week. However, it’s too early to say if this will become Bret, the next named storm on the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season list.

There is still plenty of time to wait and see what happens with this disturbance in the Atlantic.

“The thing that this system has working for it are very warm water temperatures,” said FOX Weather meteorologist Britta Merwin. “In fact, the water temperatures in this part of the Atlantic are very warm for this time of year, but as it gets closer to the Lesser Antilles, the wind shear starts to stream in and is that enough to rip apart the system? Time will tell.”

According to the FOX Forecast Center, early guidance suggests this area of disturbed weather could eventually end up north of the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico by June 24.

It would be rare if the African wave did develop. According to the FOX Forecast Center, since 1950, only three storms have originated from the area where this wave could develop during the month of June.

“This is an area of the Atlantic where you almost never see tropical development, especially in Mid-June,” FOX Weather meteorologist Michael Estime said. “But when you look at those sea surface temperatures, it’s really helping to fuel the fire.”

Hurricane season kicked off June 1 with Arlene, the first named storm of the season, forming a day later.

Source: Fox Weather